The Art Market Is Changing and These Artists Are at the Center of It

The spring season is typically when the world’s top auction houses roll out the heavy hitters—paintings with sky-high price tags and collectors eager to spend. But this year’s modern and contemporary art sales tell a more grounded story.

With economic jitters, global sales down by 20%, and auction houses facing internal shifts like staff cuts and investment pushes, the usual buzz has quieted. Instead of blockbuster pieces and bold new frontiers, this season is focused on traditional, carefully selected works that could serve as indicators of how the market is adapting.

Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips are still hoping to bring in between $1.2 billion and $1.6 billion combined. But with fewer $50 million-plus pieces on the roster, the spotlight is now on a handful of specific artworks.

These six standout artists and their works could offer the clearest signals about where the art world is headed next.

Alberto Giacometti

Sotheby’s Modern Evening Auction | Estimated: $70M+

Alberto Giacometti’s bronze “Grande tête mince (Grande tête de Diego)” is leading this season’s offerings. The bust of his brother Diego—also his studio assistant—carries the highest price estimate. Unlike most top-tier lots, this piece doesn’t have a financial guarantee, signaling that both Sotheby’s and the Soloviev Foundation (its seller) are confident it will perform well on its own merit.

Simon Shaw of Sotheby’s, involved in arranging the sale, remarked, “It’s the most compelling work in the season—no close second.” A similar cast sold for $53.3 million in 2010, which translates to $78.1 million in today’s dollars. However, the painted surface on this version could push the value even higher, given its uniqueness.

Piet Mondrian

Christie’s – Leonard & Louise Riggio: Collected Works | Estimated: $50M

Piet Mondrian’s geometric masterwork, “Composition With Large Red Plane, Bluish Gray, Yellow, Black and Blue,” is another standout. From the estate of bookstore mogul Leonard Riggio and his wife Louise, this piece is Christie’s top estimated lot.

What makes it notable is the timing. The announcement of this consignment came after U.S. tariffs were implemented, yet the Riggio estate moved forward. Drew Watson of Bank of America Private Bank pointed out that such a move wouldn’t happen if sellers were truly pessimistic about the current market.

Despite strong historical sales (a similar piece fetched $51 million in 2022), Christie’s has guaranteed the entire Riggio collection, raising the stakes. The question now is whether Mondrian’s market can match those past numbers under different economic conditions.

Olga de Amaral

Phillips Modern & Contemporary Art Evening Sale | Estimated: $300K–$500K

A new face at New York’s top-tier auctions, Colombian artist Olga de Amaral is gaining overdue recognition. Her 1996 gold-woven tapestry “Imagen perdida 27” marks a pivotal moment, moving her work from niche to spotlight.

Jean-Paul Engelen from Phillips commented, “She’s finally being seen as an artist in her own right, not limited by labels.” De Amaral’s works blend textile and sculpture, and with a recent European museum survey under her belt, her value is climbing. While the auction house has more of her works in lower-tier day sales, the inclusion in an evening event reflects both her rising profile and Phillips’ need to strengthen their lineup amid weaker overall estimates.

Jean-Michel Basquiat and Andy Warhol

Christie’s Evening Auctions | Estimated: $20M–$30M each

Jean-Michel Basquiat’s “Baby Boom” and Andy Warhol’s “Big Electric Chair” are positioned closely in price, but the market appears to be leaning more toward Basquiat. Alex Rotter, president at Christie’s, explained, “If there’s one artist who commands attention across all levels right now, it’s Basquiat.”

His 1982 piece is considered a highlight from his peak creative period. Meanwhile, Warhol’s work, though historically significant, has seen less rotation in private collections, making fresh high-end examples harder to find. The performance of these two works could offer insight into whether the art world is shifting its attention permanently from Warhol to Basquiat.

Carroll Dunham

Sotheby’s – Barbara Gladstone Collection | Estimated: $250K–$350K

Carroll Dunham’s “Bathers Seventeen (Black Hole)” brings an intriguing narrative. Offered from the personal collection of late gallerist Barbara Gladstone, the painting may benefit from the added prestige of her name.

Art consultant Molly Epstein pointed out that when someone so influential picks certain artworks, it really matters. “Every piece in her collection shows an important moment in today’s art,” she said. While Dunham’s past auction prices are higher, being connected to Gladstone might bring new attention to his work, especially now that he’s changed galleries.

The Art Market

This season’s auctions focus less on spectacle and more on testing the commitment of serious collectors. While high price estimates remain, fewer artworks come with financial guarantees. These six artists highlight more than potential sales — they signal changing trends in value, interest, and risk across the industry.

From Giacometti’s iconic sculpture to Olga de Amaral’s shift from overlooked to in-demand, each piece reflects the market’s current mood. As auction houses rethink their approach and collectors become more selective, these sales may influence the future direction of the art world.